This is not an endorsement. It is a projection built from years of tracking Lancaster City elections since they became contested since 2007, analyzing historical turnout patterns, campaign infrastructure, field visibility, and current mobilization efforts.

Projected Winners (If the Race Were Held Today):

In no particular order:   Ahmed Ahmed     Amos Stoltzfus     Marshall Miller     Nancy I. Millán

Just outside the top four:

 Lochard Calixte and Vincent Derek Smith                                                                                                        

Why This Projection?

In every competitive city race since 2017, three wards — the 6th, 9th, and 8th — have consistently accounted for 50% to 60% of the total turnout. These wards are where the most resources, mailers, field efforts, and signs are concentrated. The campaigns with VoteBuilder access, money for mail, and a network to distribute literature tend to dominate. Three wards out of nine in Lancaster, PA, make up half of the voter turnout.

On Tuesday, the Pennsylvania State Senate passed Senate Bill 9 — known as the “Save Women’s Sports Act” — by a 32-18 vote. The bill, introduced by Sen. Judy Ward (R-Blair/Fulton/Huntingdon/Juniata/Mifflin), mandates that athletic teams in public schools and higher education institutions be designated as male, female, or coeducational based on biological sex. The legislation specifically bars individuals identified as male at birth from competing on teams designated for women.

If you're a candidate running in Lancaster County's May 20th municipal primary — you need to know this:

You're not running a persuasion campaign anymore. You're in a turnout sprint.

There’s a bill moving through the Pennsylvania Senate right now — Senate Bill 9 — that proposes banning trans women and girls from participating in women’s sports. Let’s be honest about what this is: it’s not about fairness, safety, or competition. It’s about attacking a minority group that has been relentlessly targeted by right-wing politics for years.

The bill is dead on arrival in Pennsylvania. It will not become law. But the harm was never in whether it passes. The harm is in the performance — the public spectacle of putting trans lives and dignity up for debate, yet again.

This is what the Republican Party does best: waste taxpayer time pushing legislation that says not everyone counts.

We recognize that the City of Lancaster has finally published the demographic breakdown of police use of force data. That transparency matters — and it’s something we’ve demanded, loudly and consistently. This is a small victory and achievement as our demand was met, the public deserves to see who is being policed, how often, and with what level of force.

But while the data is now available, the trust is not.

Intro:
As the city continues to reel from the March 2nd police assault on Latino teenagers, the public’s outrage has been both vocal and powerful. In the face of delayed transparency and unanswered questions, members of the Lancaster community are stepping forward with clarity, urgency, and courage. We went to City Hall not just to witness — but to listen. The following statement, delivered by Duncan Hopkins of Lancaster Stands Up, reflects the deep pain and righteous demand for justice that is echoing through neighborhoods across the city. This is more than public comment. It is part of the historical record of our time.