Who Wins If the Election Happened Today? A Data-Driven Look at Lancaster City Council’s 2025 Democratic Primary
This is not an endorsement. It is a projection built from years of tracking Lancaster City elections since they became contested since 2007, analyzing historical turnout patterns, campaign infrastructure, field visibility, and current mobilization efforts.
Projected Winners (If the Race Were Held Today):
In no particular order: Ahmed Ahmed Amos Stoltzfus Marshall Miller Nancy I. Millán
Just outside the top four:
Lochard Calixte Vincent Derek Smith
Why This Projection?
In every competitive city race since 2017, three wards — the 6th, 9th, and 8th — have consistently accounted for 50% to 60% of the total turnout. These wards are where the most resources, mailers, field efforts, and signs are concentrated. The campaigns with VoteBuilder access, money for mail, and a network to distribute literature tend to dominate. Three wards out of nine in Lancaster, PA, make up half of the voter turnout.
The Lancaster City Democratic Committee has a 100%-win rate in contested primaries since 2017. While it’s not the only factor, it remains decisive, and right now, we haven’t seen enough strategic effort from non-endorsed candidates to expect more than one breakthrough.
Ahmed and Marshall Are Likely in the Top Tier — But It’s Not Just Strategy That Got Them There
We have Ahmed and Marshall looking to be in the top spots. Ahmed Ahmed and Marshall Miller are in a position to win not because of sharply defined platforms or innovative field programs, but due to their resources, visibility, name brand recognition, and institutional focus. They have signs distributed throughout the city, their literature is being circulated, and their mailers are being sent out to a targeted universe. The party backs them. They have the resources to win.
Their favorability is strong in the wards with the highest turnout, especially for Councilor Ahmed. He has a record of winning 67% of the popular vote in the 6th Ward, 63% in the 8th Ward, and 75% in the 9th Ward in his 2023 primary. Marshall Miller is no stranger to these wards either—as a former City Committee Chair, he would have supported those same outcomes and remains well known there.
It’s not that these campaigns are making sophisticated moves or delivering targeted persuasion at the doors. What they have is the infrastructure to be seen and remembered — and that alone makes them hard to beat in a city that continues to reward name recognition and endorsements.
Amos Stoltzfus Is Following a Familar Path
In 2017, Janet Diaz broke through without party backing. She built community credibility as a healthcare professional, and she had a consistent presence. She spoke about what people were living through.
Amos Stoltzfus appears to be on that same path. He is doing a unique style of coalition building that has garnered attention. With support from Lancaster Stands Up and CASA, a deep local base as SoWe director, and alignment with renter and housing justice issues, Amos is doing the slow, personal work. And in a race with low differentiation elsewhere, this looks to be enough to carry him into the winner’s circle.
Nancy I. Millán May Win by Default
Nancy is party endorsed, but she is not a high-profile figure in city politics. Her win, if it happens, won’t be because of name recognition or field energy. It will be because she is on the mailers and the sample ballots that reach consistent voters. In a four-vote race, the fourth spot often goes to the candidate with just enough presence and no controversy — and Nancy fits that profile.
Vincent Derek Smith Is Close — But Faces Structural Obstacles
Derek brings an empathetic, grounded, real-life approach to city problems. He speaks from lived experience and is one of the few candidates offering honest, community-rooted reflections on policing and accountability. He is not running a policy-wonk campaign — and that’s okay. His name is second on the ballot. He also has the Lancaster Stands Up Endorsement.
Still, he’s in a tough spot. The Southeast vote is fractured. Without a surge in 4th and 7th Ward turnout, and without an independent field operation, it’s hard to see him overtaking candidates with better-funded, party-coordinated efforts.
He could be close, but unless the ground game changes this week, he may land just outside the top four.
The Lochard Calixte Wild Card
Lochard Calixte remains one of the biggest unknowns in this race. As a sitting incumbent who was once endorsed by the city Democratic Committee, his absence from this year’s endorsement slate is notable — we haven’t seen much of a campaign presence, messaging strategy, or field operation. His name is third on the ballot, which may help. He has endorsements from CASA in Action and Central PA Trades.
That said, we’ve never seen a previously endorsed incumbent lose a seat. Could his incumbency and quiet favorability be enough to carry him into the fourth spot? It’s possible — especially if Millán’s support is softer than expected or if the Southeast vote consolidates unpredictably.
There is a version of this outcome where Lochard finishes fourth and knocks Nancy off the list. But we don’t yet see a path where both Lochard and Vincent Derek Smith break through together — their lanes are too overlapped, and turnout is too tight.
We’ll be watching closely.
What’s Missing: Contrast, Infrastructure, and a Real Push to Beat the Status Quo
This campaign cycle has been light on substance. No candidate has made sharp contrasts. No one has mounted a real challenge to the Democratic machine. There’s been more noise on Facebook than there’s been on doors.
And that matters — because elections aren’t won with yard signs or engagement posts.
What’s missing across the board:
· No meaningful voter registration efforts
· No vote-by-mail application drives
· No robo-text or call outreach to low-propensity voters
Yet we know that the highest-performing candidates in past cycles earned nearly 25% of their total votes through vote-by-mail. This is not speculation. It’s documented fact. And still — no campaign has fully activated that lane.
What we are seeing instead is what we’ve seen before: those with money, VAN access, and institutional support win by default, not by vision.
What Could Still Shift the Outcome?
· A coordinated GOTV surge in the 4th and 7th Wards
· A late-breaking contrast campaign to create clarity
· A push to do the organizing that hasn’t yet materialized
Conclusion: This Is a Resource Race, Not a Strategic One
What’s happening in Lancaster right now isn’t a clean competition of ideas. It’s a competition of infrastructure.
If Lancaster wants to elect leaders who reflect the city’s values — especially in the Southeast and Southwest — that won’t happen automatically. It will require breaking from passive, safe campaigns and investing in real voter contact and turnout.
Elections are not won on Facebook. They are won by those who organize. And right now, we haven’t seen nearly enough of that. But, with organizations like the Black Voter Outreach Network and all of our partners, we are hopeful for a future that changes things impactfully for Lancaster. Documenting and reporting this is step one for the necessary changes.
