Why the 2025 Lancaster City Democratic Primary Was Important
The 2025 Democratic Primary stands as one of Lancaster City's most consequential elections in recent memory. In a city that is 56% Democratic and only 20% Republican, the Democratic primary effectively determines who governs Lancaster. Three critical factors made this election particularly significant for the city's political future:
An open mayoral race. For the first time since 2021, Lancaster City voters faced a mayoral election without an incumbent seeking re-election. This created unprecedented opportunities for new leadership and fresh perspectives on the city's direction.
A city council majority at stake. The majority of the City Council was up for grabs, with four of the seven seats on the ballot—enough to completely reshape the governing coalition and policy priorities for the next term.
Lancaster City's outsized regional influence A progressive stronghold, Lancaster City plays an outsized role in shaping Democratic politics across predominantly red Lancaster County. The outcomes here often signal broader political trends and coalition strength throughout the region.
With no Republican challengers in the general election, the Democratic primary decided who would lead Lancaster City for the next four years, making every vote in the primary crucial.
Lancaster City: A blue dot in a red county
🗺️ VOTER REGISTRATION BREAKDOWN
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Democratic ████████████████████████████ 56%
Republican ████████ 20%
No pref/Ind ████████████ 24%
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Key players in the 2025 Primary Elections
Candidates loom largest in every election, but various groups behind the scenes often determine who wins and who loses.
Jamie Arroyo: Vice Chair of City Council and twice-elected councilmember who emerged as the successful mayoral candidate, backed by strong institutional support and campaign infrastructure. Arroyo will make history as Lancaster's first Puerto Rican mayor.
Marshall Miller: Former head of the Democratic City Committee whose influence proved more decisive than his council candidacy might suggest. Miller was instrumental in securing endorsements for political newcomers in the past, and Nancy Millan this cycle. He leveraged his party connections to shape the Lancaster City Democratic Committee and organize the Democrats for Lancaster Slate.
Amos Stoltzfus: A political newcomer who proved that outsider campaigns can still succeed, winning a council seat without formal party backing. Stoltzfus built his campaign through grassroots engagement that mobilized 60 volunteers, delivered an authentic housing-focused message, and secured support from Lancaster Stands Up and CASA. His victory represents the most interesting challenge to the endorsement system in recent memory.
The Democratic City Committee: A powerful endorsing organization that has maintained a perfect endorsement record since 2017, providing crucial resources including detailed Democratic voter data to preferred candidates. This year, the committee inexplicitly decided not to endorse Lochard Calixte, an experienced, highly qualified incumbent with a good track record. The core Democratic voters who turn out for primaries tend to vote for endorsed candidates, ensuring his defeat.
Janet Diaz: Chair of the Public Safety Committee and twice-elected councilmember who challenged Arroyo for the mayoral nomination. Diaz's campaign faced significant infrastructure challenges, suffered from negative press coverage, and appeared increasingly disjointed as the race progressed. Her candidacy demonstrated the difficulties of running against established party machinery without adequate resources or organization.
Local organizations like Lancaster Stands Up and CASA played significant roles in supporting candidates and mobilizing voters around progressive policy priorities, particularly in Amos Stoltzfus's successful grassroots campaign.
A landslide mayoral race
🏛️ MAYORAL RESULTS
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Jamie Arroyo (Endorsed) ████████████████████████████████████ 83.5% (3,710 votes)
Janet Diaz ████████ 16.0% (710 votes)
Write-ins/Under Votes ▌ 0.5% (86 votes)
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📊 KEY STATS:
• Arroyo won 5x more votes than Diaz
• 768 mail-in votes for Arroyo vs 160 for Diaz
• Dominated Wards 6, 8, and 9 (Ward 9-5: 322-14)
Key Issues That Shaped the Campaign
Three major policy areas dominated campaign discussions and voter concerns. They are the same issues that have dominated Lancaster City politics for years:
Economic development: Candidates debated approaches to growing Lancaster's economy while maintaining affordability and community character.
Affordable Housing: With housing costs rising, candidates offered different visions for addressing the city's affordability crisis.
Public Safety: Questions around police oversight, community safety, and public safety spending featured prominently in candidate platforms and voter discussions.
City Council: Endorsements vs. Grassroots
🏙️ CITY COUNCIL WINNERS
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Ahmed Ahmed [✅ ENDORSED] ████████████████████████████████ 3,247 votes
Mail-in: 689 votes | $6,110 raised | Traditional campaign
Marshall Miller [✅ ENDORSED] ██████████████████████████████ 2,933 votes
Mail-in: 624 votes | $14,269 raised | Traditional campaign
Amos Stoltzfus [🌱 GRASSROOTS] █████████████████████████████ 2,871 votes
Mail-in: 538 votes | $8,835 raised | 60 volunteers mobilized
Nancy I. Millán [✅ ENDORSED] ██████████████████████████ 2,324 votes
Mail-in: 535 votes | $525 raised | Low-visibility campaign
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📈 Pattern: Top 4 vote-by-mail recipients all won council seats
🎯 Breakthrough: Amos overcame "Endorsement Default Mode"
Election factors and variables
This election revealed that Democratic politics in Lancaster City is increasingly dominated by a small but entrenched political machine. Three of the four winning City Council candidates were endorsed by the Lancaster City Democratic Committee. The party's endorsement provided crucial in-kind access to detailed Democratic voter data—information providing voter contact details and turnout history that enabled targeted mailers, texts, and canvassing.
Party endorsement supremacy. This election revealed what might be called "endorsement default mode," where party endorsements substitute for actual candidate evaluation by voters. Party endorsement doesn't create more engagement by Democrats; it gives them an excuse to substitute the party's insider games for genuine candidate assessment. How else can one account for the election of a candidate with very little experience who barely campaigned over an incumbent with experience, knowledge, and demonstrated work effort? Marshall Miller's influence was particularly notable in securing an endorsement for Nancy Millán, a relatively unknown candidate with minimal campaign presence.
Incumbency advantage. While there was no incumbent mayor, several council candidates benefited from name recognition and established voter relationships from previous campaigns.
Resources and fundraising. Campaign resources varied dramatically among candidates:
· Marshall Miller: Raised over $14,000, the highest among council candidates
· Amos Stoltzfus: Raised ~$8,800 despite no institutional backing
· Ahmed Ahmed: Raised $6,100 and contributed to the slate PAC
· Nancy Millán: Raised just $525 but benefited from slate resources
Vote-by-mail continues to decide elections. Vote-by-mail patterns proved crucial, with Democratic primary participation in Lancaster County dropping to 22% in 2025 compared to 27% in 2023 and 25% in 2021, representing the lowest turnout of the recent municipal primary cycle:
· Top vote-by-mail recipients all won their races
· Council winners showed clear correlation between mail success and overall ballot success
· Mail voting allowed for targeted voter outreach and relationship building
Geographic dynamics. Wards 6, 8, and 9 accounted for over 60% of total votes. These same wards were decisive in 2023 and 2021, suggesting the city's political power remains geographically concentrated in these areas.
Policy positions and coalition-building. Amos Stoltzfus proved that viable paths exist outside the traditional party structure. His campaign succeeded through grassroots engagement that mobilized 60 volunteers, his ability to deliver an authentic housing-focused message that resonated with voters concerned about affordability, and support from Lancaster Stands Up and CASA. While questions remain about the comprehensiveness of his housing policies, voters clearly believed in his genuine commitment to addressing the issue. Stoltzfus overcame the "Endorsement Default Mode" that other candidates could not.
Democratic primary turnout: A concerning decline
📉 TURNOUT COMPARISON
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2021 ████████████████████████▌ 25%
2023 ██████████████████████████▌ 27%
2025 ████████████████████████ 22% ⬅️ LOWEST IN RECENT CYCLE
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⚠️ Despite citywide impact, most residents don't vote
Going forward: What all of this means for Lancaster
While only 22% of voters made their way to the polls, the 2025 Democratic primary will have an impact on the City for years to come. Some lessons and questions to consider:
1. Democratic Party endorsement is powerful but not omnipotent. Amos Stoltzfus's victory demonstrates that well-organized grassroots campaigns can still challenge and succeed against institutional power. Nonetheless, "endorsement default mode" remains strong - most voters rely on party guidance rather than conducting independent candidate evaluation.
2. Resources matter, but so does organization. Campaign fundraising alone doesn't guarantee victory. Candidates need to pair financial resources with effective field organization, clear messaging, and authentic community connections. Marshall Miller's influence in securing endorsements for underfunded candidate Nancy Millán demonstrates how party connections can substitute for traditional campaign infrastructure.
3. The Democratic Party isn't engaging most voters. Despite the election's citywide impact, voter turnout remained disappointingly low, dropping to the lowest level in recent municipal primary cycles. This suggests that current engagement strategies are not reaching most Lancaster residents, leaving significant portions of the community unrepresented in crucial decisions.
4. When will Democratic candidates start engaging about the future? A troubling pattern emerged in the mayoral race: Neither candidate attempted to articulate how they would genuinely change Lancaster for the future. Arroyo presented politically acceptable themes with minimal substance, while Diaz resorted to conspiracy theories.
All of this raises fundamental questions about when Democratic candidates will engage the community in meaningful discussions about the city's future - discussions that should be about more than simply assuming office in January.
The Blueprint for Victory
A clear path to electoral success is emerging from this election:
Focus on Wards 6, 8, and 9 where political power is concentrated. Note that this is the traditional path for winning elections in the city rather than the only path.
Target vote-by-mail recipients with personalized outreach.
Build authentic community trust through consistent presence and policy alignment.
Combine adequate resources with strong field organization.
Challenge endorsement default mode through genuine grassroots engagement
Voters in other wards could potentially increase their registration and turnout to make future elections more competitive, but the current geographic concentration of political power remains a defining feature of Lancaster politics.
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This analysis represents our effort to understand the dynamics that shaped Lancaster City's 2025 Democratic Primary. What emerged was a picture of a small but increasingly entrenched political machine that prioritizes insider relationships over genuine democratic engagement. As our democracy works best when all voices are heard, we encourage continued civic engagement and community dialogue about our city's future—dialogue that goes beyond the comfortable themes and insider games that characterized this election cycle.
